Since I interned at NJ Transit’s bus scheduling office one summer, i find it interesting to see how the timetables change every season on the various bus routes in my area. This time around, the schedules are changing for the 84 and the 123.

The 84 is a local route that uses the same streets as the Bergenline jitney bus route between Journal Square and North Bergen. The new timetable shows service on weekdays being reduced from a bus every 15 minutes to a bus every 20 minutes.

To me, this change is logical. The 84 probably has low ridership because it competes against jitney buses that run every 1-2 minutes. I have seen these buses, and they are almost always close to empty. So are the Bergenline buses at most times of day, but that’s another story.

It will be interesting to see how this change affects the jitney world. My assumption is that it means a small number of fares that would have gone to NJ Transit will now go to jitney drivers’ living. NJ Transit will benefit because they won’t spend as much money running buses that aren’t needed.

The second change is to the 123, a bus that connects Palisade Ave in Jersey City and New York to the Port Authority. Until recently, almost all morning rush hour trips started at the Congress Street Light Rail station. There was only one 123 bus every hour or so in the morning rush between Congress Street and Christ Hospital. This was probably because the Palisade – New York jitney route provides a more direct service, with fewer stops.

Now, there will be a 123 from Christ Hospital every 20 minutes or so in the morning rush. I am concerned that this will take passengers away from the New York – Palisade jitney, which is already a very small route with only a few departures a day. If the margins become too slim, the drivers may quit or find a more productive route. And the passengers won’t even be better off, because the 123 is a good 10-20 minutes longer in the mornings, because of its local stops, and the fact that it approaches the Lincoln Tunnel from the north instead of the South.

Another possibility is that the extra 123s will provide an “anchor” that will actually benefit the New York – Palisade route. This is an effect where passengers, knowing that a regular service like the 123 is available, will wait at bus stops at designated times. This allows the jitney drivers to arrive before the 123, and offer transportation to these people.  Either outcome is possible, making this an interesting natural experiment.